A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. Positive feedback about physical-exam skills or clinical decision-making occurred during encounters, positive or constructive team-based feedback occurred immediately following encounters, and individualized constructive feedback occurred in one-on-one settings following rounding sessions. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. quick and timely) and also ecologically valid (i.e. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. Mark Zuckerberg, in 2004, wanted nothing more than to sell Facebook for a few million dollars so he could work on his P2P filesharing program, Wirehog, commenting that the sale price just needed to be large enough to propel Wirehog. Youtube was a dating site. This trend persists when median score is included (Model 7 in Table 3). but less Well: researchers have a slight conflict of interest in the matter, and are happy to spend arbitrary amounts of money on topics without anything to show for it. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. Imagine it is 1965. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. 1. And there were plenty of lucrative search engine founders (is Jerry Yang still a billionaire? Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. I knew immediately that Bourdet was really on to something. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. Suppose the home robotic growth were concentrated in a single private company which exploded into the billions of annual revenue and took away the market share of all the others, forcing them to go bankrupt or merge or shrink. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. These project managers tend to pick polarizing projects rather than consistent projects (Goldstein&Kearney2017), ones which generate disagreement among reviews or critics. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. Lets imagine a different scenario, where instead you were confident that home robotics were about to experience a huge growth spurt. within the environment where learning is taking place). In a recent poll [8], thirty-five out of forty-two people engaged in this sort of research gave estimates between ten and one hundred years. That old failed idea might be ready for prime time. This was oft-cited as an example of how technoweenies failed to understand that people didnt really want videophones at allwho wants to put on makeup before making a call?, people offered as an explanation, in all seriousnessbut really, it looks like the videophones back then simply werent good enough. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. X Research source. One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. timing the adoption of a new the strategic alternatives open to competing ing real option approach seems to provide a technology. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . But equally, anything with that much potential has a high likelihood of failureif it was obviously a good idea with no risks, everyone would be doing it. Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. Without technology eradicated disease such as smallpox or the Spanish flu could have been still rampant since the 1800's. Getting a simple cold could be life threatening without technology. Firefox: we are going to build a better web browser, even though 90% of the worlds computers already have a free one built in. Ummon addressed the assembly and said: I am not asking you about the days before the fifteenth of the month. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. Academy of Engineering in 2003. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. One guy will do most of the work. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. Researchers in general have no incentive to say, this is not the right time, wait another 20 years for Moores law to make it doable, even if everyone in the field is perfectly aware of thisPalmer Luckey: I spent a huge amount of time readingI think that there were a lot of people that were giving VR too much credit, because they were working as VR researchers. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? Without the funds for the fuel companies, we couldnt have flown anyway. Freds luck held again. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). Youve invented taxis & buses. Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. reflection-in-action. why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. But to come very near to a true theory, and to grasp its precise application, are two very different things, as the history of science teaches us. Progress will happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing are too difficult to get right, and the benefits of R&D is in laying fallow until the ripe time and their exploitation in unpredictable ways. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. Normal PSRL requires episodes, which dont really have a real-world equivalent, but PSRL can be extended to handle continuous actiona nice example is deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), which does back off in periodically stopping, and re-evaluating the optimal strategy based on accumulated evidence, but less & less often, so it does PSRL over increasingly large time windows.. In this sense, Hrlein might be said to have thoughtas Thomas Hughes has shown that Edison didin terms of reverse salients and critical problems. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). Well, this class of molecules that we put into neurons hadnt been discovered yet. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. Such a device would not have been aimed at the then unattainable goal of economic viability; but its successful demonstration might, just conceivably, have greatly accelerated matters when the time was finally ripe. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. During a recession and a cleantech backlash. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Polarizing here could be reflect a wide posterior value distribution, or if the posterior is being approximated by something like a mixture of experts or an ensemble of multiple models (like running multiple passes over a dropout-trained neural network, or a bootstrapped neural network ensemble). Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. rife with examples of the prescient failing. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. The first Kafka of Betrachtung is less a precursor of the Kafka of the gloomy myths and terrifying institutions than is Browning or Lord Dunsany. However, technology affects ones thinking capacity and development of ideas. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? Err I sometimes practice what I call failure rebooting. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. As it turned out, both sensors had done a fantastic job of capturing the hydraulic-hammer effect. How we decide by Jonah Lehrer. After10 hours of deliberation, he was acquitted. I basically think all the ideas of the 90s that everybody had about how this stuff was going to work, I think they were all right, they were all correct. It can reasonably be said that time was unripe for digital computing as an industrial technology. Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy cant reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. 3). Technology has existed for many years, maybe not the type of technology we have now because it managed to evolve throughout time. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. In the hypothetical that you didnt know the name of the company, you mightve bought up a bunch of Google stock hoping that Orkut would be the winner, but while that wouldve been a decent investment (yay!) As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. If you arent struck by a sense of dj vu or pity when you read this book, compare the claims by people at the Media Lab with contemporaryor laterworks like Clifford Stolls Silicon Snake Oil, and youll see how right they were. The most demanding suppliers when it came to payments were the oil companies. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. In fact, timing is a science. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. previous similar startups failed). : Testing and Interpretation in Layered Reservoirs,, Ehlig-Economides, C.A. and less Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. Conclusion. If convicted, he would have faced a prison term of up to five years. The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Dont ask Fisher, hes hardly going to say, oh yeah, all the money was completely wasted, we were trying to do it too soon; our bad. My timing on the technical front could not have been better. Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? This is a very firms, technology is one of the main forces powerful tool for the assessment of technol- important question of strat- which operates in the business arena. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. It is not like the horse or the bull, the wolf or the deer. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. What would you do with it? Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. . it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. PHILIPPINE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. Only Apple can build apps for it. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. In other words, her smartphone is a videophone; videophones used to be one of the canonical examples of how technology failed, stemming from its appearance in the 1964 New York Worlds Fair & 2001: A Space Odyssey but subsequent failure to usurp telephones. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. Likewise, the idea of production-log testing was to use a flowmeter to measure the downhole flow rate during pressure-buildup tests, thereby eliminating the need for pressure-derivative analysis because the wellbore storage would be corrected by the flow-rate measurement, and an equivalent to the Horner plot would suffice. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. VCs will literally escape through the bathroom to avoid talking to us., Stripe: Banks & online payment processors like PayPal are heavily-regulated inefficient monopolies which really suck; well make friends with some banks and run a payment processor which doesnt suck. With few exceptions, established offline firms have failed to catch up to today's Internet leaders. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. Something happened that made the world different. A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. More importantly, he showed me what differentiated quartz-gauge data looked like. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. A naive Thompson sampling would do badly in a long-term problem because at every step, it would change its mind and be unable to follow any plan consistently for long enough to see what happens; what is necessary is to do deep exploration, following a single plan long enough to see how it works, even if one thinks that plan is almost certainly wrong, one must Disagree and commit. So, what Babbage should have aimed for is not making a practical thinking machine which could churn out naval tables, but demonstrating that a programmable thinking machine is possible & useful, and currently limited by the slowness & size of its mechanical logicso that transistors could be pursued with higher priority by governments, and programmable computers could be created with transistors as soon as possible, instead of the historical course of a meandering piecemeal development where Babbages work was forgotten & then repeatedly reinvented with delays (eg. But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. o Activity Report: Technology and Past ( interviews with elders) o Nature's Longest Threads by Janaki. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. A predictable waste of money, perhaps, but thats how the incentives work out. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. : Use of the Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior,. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. 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